Insider Goal Picks Across Six Matches

Anderlecht vs Gent – Belgian Cup

This cup tie carries far more attacking risk than a typical league meeting.

Anderlecht enter the match without Jan Vertonghen, still their main defensive organizer and the player responsible for controlling the line in high-pressure moments. His absence often leads to poor spacing between centre-backs. In addition, Thomas Delaney is unavailable, removing a crucial shield in front of the defense and reducing Anderlecht’s ability to slow down transitions.

Gent are missing Hugo Cuypers, their top scorer and primary box presence. While his absence lowers their conversion rate, it also changes Gent’s attacking profile – they rely more on aggressive pressing, quick recoveries and secondary runs from midfield, which frequently produce chaotic scoring situations.

With wet conditions expected in Brussels and a knockout format forcing risk once the first goal arrives, defensive control is unlikely to last.

Best bet:
Both teams to score

Como vs AC Milan – Serie A

This fixture is far more open than Milan’s reputation suggests.

AC Milan remain without Fikayo Tomori, arguably their most important defender when facing transitions. His speed and recovery ability are critical in games where Milan dominate possession but lose shape after turnovers. Malick Thiaw is also not at full capacity, leaving Milan with limited defensive flexibility.

Como play without pressure and are at their most dangerous when allowed to counter into space. Milan’s attacking depth ensures chances at one end, but their rotated back line struggles to maintain compactness for 90 minutes, especially away from home.

Rain in northern Italy increases tempo and reduces defensive precision, which historically benefits goal-heavy outcomes.

Best bet:
Over 2.5 total goals

Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam – KNVB Cup

Dutch cup matches often abandon structure early, and this one fits the pattern.

Sparta are proactive at home but rarely conservative, while Volendam approach knockout games with a high-risk mindset. Volendam are without Xavier Mbuyamba, their most physically dominant centre-back and key defender on set pieces. Without him, they concede space centrally and struggle against crosses.

At the same time, Volendam’s pressing style keeps them involved offensively, even when outmatched. Once the first goal arrives, both sides tend to accelerate rather than protect the score.

Wet conditions in Rotterdam further increase unpredictability.

Best bet:
Both teams to score

Heerenveen vs RKC Waalwijk – KNVB Cup

This matchup heavily favors an open second half.

RKC arrive with serious defensive absences. Julian Lelieveld, a regular starter at full-back known for recovery runs and defensive balance, is unavailable. Shawn Adewoye, one of their most reliable centre-backs, is also missing. Together, these absences weaken RKC’s ability to defend wide areas and aerial balls.

Heerenveen tend to raise tempo in cup matches and exploit exactly these weaknesses, especially after halftime when defensive rotations break down.

Best bet:
Over 2.5 total goals

Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai vs Ajman – UAE League

This is not about favoritism, but about structural imbalance.

Shabab Al-Ahli are without Sardar Azmoun, their most clinical striker and a focal point in the penalty area. His absence slightly reduces efficiency but does not reduce volume – the team compensates with midfield runners and wide overloads.

Ajman struggle defensively and are missing Hamad Al Hammadi, a key central defender responsible for organizing the back line. Without him, Ajman concede space between the lines and are vulnerable to sustained pressure.

With ideal weather conditions and no external limitations, this matchup favors goals rather than control.

Best bet:
Over 2.5 total goals

Partizani vs Vora – Albanian Superiore

This game looks tighter on paper than it will likely be on the pitch.

Partizani are missing Arinaldo Rrapaj, a key midfielder who dictates tempo and protects the defense through ball retention. They are also without Sodiq Atanda, an important defensive figure in duels and set-piece situations.

These absences weaken Partizani through the spine, increasing the likelihood of turnovers and transitional chances for both sides. While this league often produces cautious matches, the current squad situation pushes this one toward goals.

Best bet:
Over 1.5 total goals

Closing note

None of these selections rely on obvious favoritism. Each is driven by verified absences, tactical consequences and match context, where defensive structure is compromised and goal probability rises naturally.

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